The Middle East and North Africa region has long been shaped by geopolitical rivalries, proxy wars, and sudden political upheavals. Time and again, the fall — or weakening — of entrenched regimes has raised hopes for democratic change. Yet the region’s recent history shows a more complicated reality: moments of upheaval often give way not to democracy, but to new forms of authoritarian rule, fragile states, or prolonged instability. Drawing on developments in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and beyond, this panel discussion will examine whether the region is witnessing the opening of new political possibilities, or the consolidation of familiar patterns under new circumstances.